Washington Commanders
Every Commanders game grouped by individual official, or by the same seven officials on the field. Over this sample the Commanders are 60-81 (42.6%); each ref and crew win rate below is compared to that team average.
Whistle pattern
PatternIn the Commanders games with Scott Novak, the Commanders draw 3.6 more flags thrown per game than opponents (9-game sample).
9 games in sample
Scott Novak profile →Scoring pattern
PatternIn the Commanders games with Don Willard, contests average 53.8 combined points (+7.8 vs league), 90.0% finish over the 44.9-point benchmark across 10 games.
10 games in sample
Don Willard profile →9 games with the Commanders · ~7-2
77.8%
Team baseline 42.6%
+35.2 pts vs team45.9 avg
44.4% over 44.9
-0.1 vs league-0.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced12 games with the Commanders · ~9-3
75.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+32.4 pts vs team38.1 avg
25.0% over 44.9
-7.9 vs league+1.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency10 games with the Commanders · ~7-3
70.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+27.4 pts vs team42.1 avg
40.0% over 44.9
-3.9 vs league-2.2
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency9 games with the Commanders · ~6-3
66.7%
Team baseline 42.6%
+24.1 pts vs team46.9 avg
44.4% over 44.9
+0.9 vs league-0.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~6-3
66.7%
Team baseline 42.6%
+24.1 pts vs team43.4 avg
44.4% over 44.9
-2.6 vs league+0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced11 games with the Commanders · ~7-4
63.6%
Team baseline 42.6%
+21.0 pts vs team48.1 avg
54.5% over 44.9
+2.1 vs league+0.8
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~5-3
62.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+19.9 pts vs team47.4 avg
37.5% over 44.9
+1.4 vs league+0.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~5-3
62.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+19.9 pts vs team47.1 avg
62.5% over 44.9
+1.1 vs league+0.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~5-3
62.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+19.9 pts vs team44.1 avg
37.5% over 44.9
-1.9 vs league-1.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~5-3
62.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+19.9 pts vs team42 avg
37.5% over 44.9
-4.0 vs league+0.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~5-3
62.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+19.9 pts vs team47.5 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+1.5 vs league-0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~5-4
55.6%
Team baseline 42.6%
+13.0 pts vs team40.7 avg
33.3% over 44.9
-5.3 vs league+0.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~5-4
55.6%
Team baseline 42.6%
+13.0 pts vs team53.1 avg
77.8% over 44.9
+7.1 vs league+3.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency9 games with the Commanders · ~5-4
55.6%
Team baseline 42.6%
+13.0 pts vs team51.9 avg
77.8% over 44.9
+5.9 vs league-0.9
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced11 games with the Commanders · ~6-5
54.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
+11.9 pts vs team44.4 avg
36.4% over 44.9
-1.6 vs league-0.5
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~5-5
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team44 avg
40.0% over 44.9
-2.0 vs league-1.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency10 games with the Commanders · ~5-5
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team45.8 avg
50.0% over 44.9
-0.2 vs league-0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team47.1 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+1.1 vs league-0.2
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team37.4 avg
25.0% over 44.9
-8.6 vs league-0.2
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team40.9 avg
37.5% over 44.9
-5.1 vs league-1.7
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team47.1 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+1.1 vs league+0.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team37.1 avg
0.0% over 44.9
-8.9 vs league-2.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~4-4
50.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
+7.4 pts vs team43.3 avg
37.5% over 44.9
-2.7 vs league+1.3
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency9 games with the Commanders · ~4-5
44.4%
Team baseline 42.6%
+1.8 pts vs team48 avg
44.4% over 44.9
+2.0 vs league+0.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~4-5
44.4%
Team baseline 42.6%
+1.8 pts vs team45.9 avg
33.3% over 44.9
-0.1 vs league-0.3
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~4-5
44.4%
Team baseline 42.6%
+1.8 pts vs team40.8 avg
33.3% over 44.9
-5.2 vs league+0.7
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~4-6
40.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-2.6 pts vs team49.9 avg
80.0% over 44.9
+3.9 vs league+0.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~4-6
40.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-2.6 pts vs team49.4 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+3.4 vs league-0.8
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~4-6
40.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-2.6 pts vs team47.7 avg
70.0% over 44.9
+1.7 vs league-0.8
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~4-6
40.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-2.6 pts vs team52.6 avg
70.0% over 44.9
+6.6 vs league-0.3
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~4-6
40.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-2.6 pts vs team45 avg
50.0% over 44.9
-1.0 vs league-0.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~3-5
37.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-5.1 pts vs team48.4 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+2.4 vs league+3.5
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~3-5
37.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-5.1 pts vs team44.8 avg
50.0% over 44.9
-1.2 vs league-0.9
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~3-5
37.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-5.1 pts vs team48.5 avg
75.0% over 44.9
+2.5 vs league-0.9
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced11 games with the Commanders · ~4-7
36.4%
Team baseline 42.6%
-6.2 pts vs team44.7 avg
54.5% over 44.9
-1.3 vs league-0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced11 games with the Commanders · ~4-7
36.4%
Team baseline 42.6%
-6.2 pts vs team48.4 avg
54.5% over 44.9
+2.4 vs league+0.5
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced12 games with the Commanders · ~4-8
33.3%
Team baseline 42.6%
-9.3 pts vs team49.9 avg
66.7% over 44.9
+3.9 vs league-1.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Opponent tendency12 games with the Commanders · ~4-8
33.3%
Team baseline 42.6%
-9.3 pts vs team46.9 avg
58.3% over 44.9
+0.9 vs league-0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~3-6
33.3%
Team baseline 42.6%
-9.3 pts vs team40.2 avg
44.4% over 44.9
-5.8 vs league-1.0
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced9 games with the Commanders · ~3-6
33.3%
Team baseline 42.6%
-9.3 pts vs team48.8 avg
55.6% over 44.9
+2.8 vs league+0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~3-7
30.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-12.6 pts vs team41.7 avg
40.0% over 44.9
-4.3 vs league-0.8
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~3-7
30.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-12.6 pts vs team48.5 avg
70.0% over 44.9
+2.5 vs league+1.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency12 games with the Commanders · ~3-9
25.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-17.6 pts vs team42.8 avg
41.7% over 44.9
-3.2 vs league-0.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~2-6
25.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-17.6 pts vs team50.3 avg
62.5% over 44.9
+4.3 vs league+2.3
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~2-6
25.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-17.6 pts vs team51.5 avg
62.5% over 44.9
+5.5 vs league-0.5
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~2-6
25.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-17.6 pts vs team48.6 avg
50.0% over 44.9
+2.6 vs league-0.6
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~2-6
25.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-17.6 pts vs team46.5 avg
37.5% over 44.9
+0.5 vs league+1.8
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency9 games with the Commanders · ~2-7
22.2%
Team baseline 42.6%
-20.4 pts vs team52 avg
55.6% over 44.9
+6.0 vs league+0.3
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~2-8
20.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-22.6 pts vs team53.4 avg
80.0% over 44.9
+7.4 vs league+0.9
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced10 games with the Commanders · ~2-8
20.0%
Team baseline 42.6%
-22.6 pts vs team53.8 avg
90.0% over 44.9
+7.8 vs league+0.2
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~1-7
12.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-30.1 pts vs team38.4 avg
0.0% over 44.9
-7.6 vs league-0.1
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
Balanced8 games with the Commanders · ~1-7
12.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-30.1 pts vs team52 avg
75.0% over 44.9
+6.0 vs league+2.4
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
WAS tendency8 games with the Commanders · ~1-7
12.5%
Team baseline 42.6%
-30.1 pts vs team56.8 avg
75.0% over 44.9
+10.8 vs league+0.5
More fouls on the Commanders's opponents when positive
BalancedHow Washington Commanders compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.
7pt proxy
73 of 168 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play
| Metric | Close games (≤7 pt margin) | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pts | 44.8 | 45.7 | -0.9 |
| Avg flags | 13.1 | 12 | +1.1 |
| Over rate | 45.2% | 51.8% | -6.6 pts |
Over benchmark: 44.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 168 total games in sample
spread
100 of 168 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play
| Metric | Pregame toss-ups | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pts | 45.6 | 45.7 | -0.1 |
| Avg flags | 12.6 | 12 | +0.6 |
| Over rate | 50.0% | 51.8% | -1.8 pts |
Over benchmark: 44.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 168 total games in sample
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2283 ESPN game logs. 4544/5864 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Official names canonicalized (122 slots); 0 reverse-name ghosts removed.
Scott Novak profile →