Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.
10 findings ranked by effect size and sample size across 2021-10-16 – 2026-05-24. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
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Showing strong-confidence findings.
9 patterns from 33 officials. Strong-confidence findings appear first; thin samples at the bottom.
Why it matters: Year-over-year context from 10 seasons in data/baselines.json (3,800 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific.
From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined goals per game held steady (-0.1 goals) while fouls fell (-0.5 fouls).
Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea averages 21.3 fouls per game (-3.7 vs league) across 81 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
17.6% of Victor García Verdura's 51 games finish under 2.5 combined goals, 32.4 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
Victor García Verdura's 51 games average 1.9 combined points (17.6% over 2.5), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
Barcelona are 3-7 (30.0%) in 10 games with César Soto Grado, vs a team sample baseline of 72.6%.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
Sevilla are 7-2 (77.8%) in 9 games with Mateo Busquets Ferrer, vs a team sample baseline of 29.4%.
Highest: Alejandro José Hernández Hernández on Real Madrid (4.3 avg). Lowest: Alejandro José Hernández Hernández on Athletic Club (1.1 avg).
Why it matters: Home/road splits within a crew bucket show venue effects beyond overall team strength. Min 6 games per side required.
When Juan Martínez Munuera work Atlético Madrid games, home win rate is 85.7% (7 gp) vs 50.0% on the road (6 gp).
Juan Martínez Munuera on Atlético Madrid: 23.1% over 2.5 points (13 games).