Dan Ferrell
#0General stats
The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. Records use per-game closing lines where available.
- Games
- 71
- Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
- 39-29
- 57.4%
- Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.
- 32-31-5
- 47.1%
- Avg home score
- 24.1
- Avg road score
- 22.2
- Average home score minus away score in this ref’s games; positive means home teams outscored visitors on average.Average home score minus away score in this ref’s games; positive means home teams outscored visitors on average.
- 1.9
- Avg total score
- 46.1
- +0.5 vs league
- Fouls per game
- 12.8
- +0.4 vs league
- Share of this crew’s games where combined scoring beat the benchmark (225 when no sportsbook total is available).Share of this crew’s games where combined scoring beat the benchmark (225 when no sportsbook total is available).
- 53.5%
Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?
| Games grouped by what the closing total was (e.g. 220–229.5). Shows how often the actual score went over that line in each bucket.Games grouped by what the closing total was (e.g. 220–229.5). Shows how often the actual score went over that line in each bucket. | Record | Win percentage for that record (wins ÷ all decisions, including pushes where listed).Win percentage for that record (wins ÷ all decisions, including pushes where listed). |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-31 | 54.4% |
| Under 42.5 | 9-3 | 75.0% |
| 42.5–46.5 | 17-14 | 54.8% |
| 46.5–50.5 | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| 50.5+ | 1-9 | 10.0% |
The same ATS record broken into groups, by spread size and by whether the home team was the favorite or underdog.The same ATS record broken into groups, by spread size and by whether the home team was the favorite or underdog.
| Spread | When the home team was the favorite (negative spread), how often did they cover ATS?When the home team was the favorite (negative spread), how often did they cover ATS? | When the home team was the underdog (positive spread), how often did they cover ATS?When the home team was the underdog (positive spread), how often did they cover ATS? |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3.5 | 8-4-2 | 7-7-1 |
| 3.5–7.5 | 5-8 | - |
| 7.5+ | 7-9-2 | - |
Late-game proxy
How Dan Ferrell compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
7pt proxy
39 of 71 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play
| Metric | Close games (≤7 pt margin) | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pts | 45 | 46.1 | -1.1 |
| Avg flags | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 |
| Over rate | 53.8% | 53.5% | +0.3 pts |
Over benchmark: 44.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 71 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups
spread
38 of 71 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play
| Metric | Pregame toss-ups | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pts | 42.9 | 46.1 | -3.2 |
| Avg flags | 14.1 | 12.8 | +1.3 |
| Over rate | 42.1% | 53.5% | -11.4 pts |
Over benchmark: 44.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 71 total games in sample
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2757 ESPN game logs. 4623/5992 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate.