Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.
11 findings ranked by effect size and sample size across 2016-09-01 – 2026-02-08. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
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11 patterns from 211 officials. Strong-confidence findings appear first; thin samples at the bottom.
Why it matters: Year-over-year context from 10 seasons in data/baselines.json (2,757 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific.
From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined pts per game held steady (+0.0 pts) while flags fell (-0.3 flags).
Why it matters: O/U ATS uses ESPN pickcenter or estimated closing totals where sportsbook data is unavailable. Min 30 decisive games required.
Totals go unders 33.3% (16-32) across 48 lined games.
Byron Boston averages 15 flags per game (+2.7 vs league) across 52 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
Mark Hittner's 87 games average 49.3 combined points (55.2% over 44.9), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
33.3% of Michael Spanier's 51 games finish under 44.9 combined points, 16.7 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
14-17 across 31 lined games, 4.8 pts from a neutral 50% split.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
Miami Dolphins are 10-1 (90.9%) in 11 games with Ryan Dickson, vs a team sample baseline of 48.5%.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
Philadelphia Eagles are 1-7 (12.5%) in 8 games with Jonah Monroe, vs a team sample baseline of 61.7%.
Highest: Perry Paganelli on Buffalo Bills (59.6 avg). Lowest: Jonah Monroe on Carolina Panthers (29.9 avg).
Why it matters: Crew dominance compares a recurring crew's pace to each member's non-crew baseline. Useful for spotting chemistry effects on scoring environment.
This 7-official crew averages 65.3 combined points across 14 games, +20.0 vs what those refs produce on other crews.
Alex Moore: 17.2 flags/game.