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Mitchell Ervin

#27
572 games analyzedSeasons 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26Updated Jul 10, 2026, 4:38 p.m.

Ref×team win-loss is from Basketball-Reference; foul, scoring, and ATS/O-U splits may use simulated or estimated data.

General stats

Games
572
Avg combined score
-
Games over benchmark
-
Fouls per game
-
Seasons
2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Spread record
N/A
No spread data yet

Tight-game proxy

How Mitchell Ervin compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.

Close games (≤5 pt margin)

Final margin within five points, a proxy for competitive late-game minutes. Not true last-two-minute (L2M) play-by-play data.

181 of 572 games match this window

proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricClose games (≤5 pt margin)Full gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts228.5226.2+2.3
Avg fouls43.241.4+1.8
Over rate59.7%55.9%+3.8 pts

Over benchmark: 222 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 572 total games in sample

Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)

Games where the closing spread was within 5.5 points; often stay tight through the fourth quarter. Spread lines may be estimated where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable.

572 of 572 games match this window

proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricPregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)Full gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts226.2226.2+0.0
Avg fouls41.441.4+0.0
Over rate55.9%55.9%+0.0 pts

Over benchmark: 222 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 572 total games in sample

How to read this profile

Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team foul splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the home page.

Ref×team W-L from Basketball-Reference (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26). Verified ingest 2026-07-09T19:56:11.546Z

Mitchell Ervin (#27) | Ref Watch