Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.
12 findings ranked by effect size and sample size across 2016-10-25 – 2026-04-12. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
Loading findings…
12 patterns from 109 officials. Strong-confidence findings appear first; thin samples at the bottom.
Mitchell Ervin averages 41.4 fouls (+1.9 vs league) yet only 50.2% of games beat 222 points.
Why it matters: Two different cuts of the same data: each ref's personal over rate asks whether they beat the 222 combined pts in most of their games; the league-wide share counts every game individually. A ref can lean over while many of their games still go under. This uses a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing.
77 of 109 officials (71%) finish under the 222 combined pts line in a majority of their own games (personal over rate below 50%). Across all 11,979 games, 45.1% cleared the benchmark and 54.9% went under.
17.5% of Derrick Stafford's 120 games finish under 222 combined pts, 32.5 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
Derrick Stafford's 120 games average 209.6 combined points (17.5% over 222), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
Why it matters: Year-over-year context from 10 seasons in data/baselines.json (12,300 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific.
From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined pts per game ticked down (-0.5 pts) while fouls fell (-0.2 fouls).
Why it matters: Personal over rate counts how often each ref's games clear the benchmark. League-wide, roughly 45.0% of games in this pool finished over. The list includes James Capers Jr., Matt Kallio, Che Flores, J.D. Ralls, Simone Jelks, Intae Hwang, Suyash Mehta, Danielle Scott and 13 more.
Among officials with 50+ games, 21 of 93 beat the 222-point benchmark in a majority of their own games, not that every game went over.
Intae Hwang averages 37.5 fouls per game (-2.0 vs league) across 97 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
LA Clippers are 2-10 (16.7%) in 12 games with Suyash Mehta, vs a team sample baseline of 56.8%.
Why it matters: Matrix splits compare ref×team win rate to each team's overall record in this dataset. Standout cells require 8+ games; descriptive history only.
Sacramento Kings are 8-0 (100.0%) in 8 games with Brandon Schwab, vs a team sample baseline of 42.2%.
Why it matters: The 100-point over-rate gap is historical scoring frequency vs a neutral 50% baseline, not sportsbook pricing.
With Dannica Baroody, 100.0% of Washington Wizards games beat 222 combined points, Toronto Raptors games only 0.0%.
Why it matters: League average is 222. The hot pair runs 40.5 above; the cold pair -36.1 below.
Highest: Dannica Baroody on Indiana Pacers (262.5 avg). Lowest: Gary Zielinski on Utah Jazz (185.9 avg).
Why it matters: Foul edge doesn't always convert to wins or overs. These games average 210.5 combined points (20.0% over rate).
With Tony Brown on Sacramento Kings games, opponents are whistled +3.6 more fouls per game. Yet Sacramento Kings win just 20.0%.