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NBA · Ref–team split
Dannica Baroody's over rate swings by opponent
Why it matters: The 100-point over-rate gap is historical scoring frequency vs a neutral 50% baseline, not sportsbook pricing.
With Dannica Baroody, 100.0% of Washington Wizards games beat 222 combined points, Toronto Raptors games only 0.0%.
- WAS over 222
- 100.0%
- 12 games
- TOR over 222
- 0.0%
- 10 games
- Over-rate gap
- 100 pts
- vs 50% neutral baseline
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →