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NBA · Ref outlier
23% of high-volume refs lean over the benchmark
Why it matters: Personal over rate counts how often each ref's games clear the benchmark. League-wide, roughly 45.0% of games in this pool finished over. The list includes James Capers Jr., Matt Kallio, Che Flores, J.D. Ralls, Simone Jelks, Intae Hwang, Suyash Mehta, Danielle Scott and 13 more.
Among officials with 50+ games, 21 of 93 beat the 222-point benchmark in a majority of their own games, not that every game went over.
- Over refs
- 21/93
- 50+ games each
- Top over ref
- 68.3%
- James Capers Jr. · 63 games
- League benchmark
- 222
- Combined pts proxy
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →