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EPL insights
Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.
Ranked by effect size and sample size across 2016-08-13 – 2026-05-24. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
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Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.
Ranked by effect size and sample size across 2016-08-13 – 2026-05-24. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
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Showing strong-confidence findings.
7 patterns from 48 officials. Strong-confidence findings appear first; thin samples at the bottom.
Why it matters: Two different cuts of the same data: each ref's personal over rate asks whether they beat the 2.5 combined goals in most of their games; the league-wide share counts every game individually. A ref can lean over while many of their games still go under. This uses a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing.
29 of 48 officials (60%) beat the 2.5 combined goals line in a majority of their own games (personal over rate above 50%). Across all 3,800 games, 54.4% finished over and 45.6% went under.
Andre Marriner averages 18.6 fouls per game (-2.9 vs league) across 164 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
David Coote: 23.5 fouls/match.
Why it matters: Year-over-year context from 10 seasons in data/baselines.json (3,800 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific.
From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined goals per game held steady (-0.1 goals) while fouls fell (-0.5 fouls).
Michael Salisbury's 61 games average 3.3 combined points (65.6% over 2.5), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
36.0% of Robert Madley's 50 games finish under 2.5 combined goals, 14.0 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
Highest: David Coote on Tottenham Hotspur (4.2 avg). Lowest: Stuart Attwell on SUN (1.5 avg).