← Research hub
NFL · ATS historical tendency
Home teams fail to cover 45.2% ATS with Karina Tovar
14-17 across 31 lined games, 4.8 pts from a neutral 50% split.
- Home ATS
- 14-17
- 45.2%
- Sample
- 31
- Min 30 games
- Edge vs 50%
- 4.8 pts
- Absolute deviation
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →